THE TACO THEORY
Yielding Isn’t Always Losing: The Art of Strategic Retreat
May 2025. Headlines about the White House sounded as loud as a mariachi band at a Cinco de Mayo party. Financial analysts, diplomats, and even the average American who only follows politics through memes or late-night news shows were all talking about the same thing: President Trump’s tariff threats.
Remember those tense days? The announcement of the so-called “Liberation Day tariffs” raised plenty of red flags: jittery markets, companies recalculating projections, sleepless CEOs. Panic began to spread like wildfire across the globe. And then… something unexpected happened.
Trump, famous for his confrontational style and his habit of raising the stakes without hesitation, suddenly shifted course: he paused the tariffs. The warnings softened. It was as if he had lit a flare, only to extinguish it with a fire extinguisher moments later.
In that context, journalist Robert Armstrong from the Financial Times gave shape to what many suspected. He coined the phrase The TACO Theory. And no, it has nothing to do with recipes or tacos al pastor. It stands for: Trump Always Chickens Out.
Cowardice or Calculation?
According to Armstrong, the president has a very low tolerance for economic pain. He excels at threatening, at playing to the edge, but when the consequences begin to hit markets, businesses, or his popularity, he opts for retreat. Strategic retreat, yes. But retreat nonetheless.
Like a poker player, he makes a big bet. Others hesitate. And just when it looks like he’ll win by default, he pulls back before the showdown.
Is that weakness? Or is it a negotiation style that pushes the principle of controlled tension to the extreme? Maybe both. Or neither. What’s undeniable is that, more than once, this tactic has worked for him.
And what does this have to do with you?
A lot. Because in politics, in business, and even in domestic disputes, negotiation is part of life. And the TACO Theory, while born from political analysis, also offers a tactical lesson for anyone facing complex negotiations every day.
Negotiation is also communication (and crisis management)
In corporate communications, negotiation isn’t just useful—it’s indispensable. Every positioning strategy, every crisis management effort involves negotiation: with media, stakeholders, internal audiences, opinion leaders, and even the public itself.
Knowing when to concede, reframe messages, adjust positions, or reschedule timing is part of the art of communicating with intelligence. Because a poorly managed negotiation can destroy reputations in hours, while a well-handled one—with dialogue, tactics, and timing—can actually strengthen an organization’s image.
At Ventura Comunicaciones, we understand this clearly: behind every message, there’s a negotiation strategy at play.
Journalist Jorge Meléndez, in his June 24, 2025 REFORMA column, offered a practical guide for preparing our own TACO. Let’s analyze his recipe and take note of its key ingredients:
How to Make a Good Negotiation TACO
1. Know your counterpart
Before making any move, understand who you’re dealing with. Are they aggressive? Passive? Do they care about principles or quick wins? Information is power—and in negotiation, it’s everything.
2. Map out your own strategy
Define your priorities: what you’re willing to give up and what’s non-negotiable. Clarity gives you flexibility. Without concessions, there’s no deal.
3. Open up the menu of options
Don’t negotiate only on price. Play with timing, deliverables, conditions, added value, or guarantees. The more variables you bring to the table, the more room you have for creative solutions.
4. Anticipate the other side’s moves
Think like the other party. What do they want? What can they never accept? What tactics do they use? If you know what card they might play, you’ll always be one step ahead.
5. Design multiple scenarios
Don’t just show up with Plan A. Have a Plan B, C, or even Z. What if things stall? What if you’re surprised? Agility is key.
6. Prepare emergency exits
If negotiations get bogged down, don’t lose patience. Sometimes what’s needed is a pause, a different spokesperson, or even a neutral third party. Not everything gets resolved in the first round.
7. Let everyone save face
A bad deal can ruin future relationships. Never humiliate your counterpart. Design agreements where everyone can say, “I gained something.” Dignity is also part of the bargain.
8. Think about the next round
Negotiation is part of a relationship, not a one-off episode. If you’re intransigent today, you may not have anyone to negotiate with tomorrow. Reputation is an investment.
Retreating? Sometimes it’s advancing.