Mexico’s political environment is a variable that investors consider when making a decision, but it is not the only one.

In full electoral effervescence, nearshoring investments continue to arrive (such as the one announced by Amazon Web Services for 5 billion dollars to be located in Querétaro), but as the day of the presidential election approaches and there is no clarity in the candidates’ proposals to take advantage of nearshoring, investments could be discouraged or paused. More complex scenarios could arise when announcing a winner, such as the overwhelming victory of a candidate and his party in Congress or there being a post-electoral conflict derived from a very close election.

Presidential candidates Jorge Álvarez Maynez, Xóchitl Gálvez and Claudia Sheimbaum recognize nearshoring as a great opportunity for Mexico and have indicated that it will be a priority for their government, but they have not yet made a concrete proposal. All three have issued statements full of rhetoric on the issue, but no strategy.

As the electoral campaigns evolve, we expect to hear proposals on the critical issues that Mexico must resolve to take advantage of nearshoring. As Jesús Herrera Casso, president of the Northeastern Mexican Business Council for Foreign Trade (COMCE), pointed out: “a comprehensive industrial policy is necessary that addresses fiscal policy, infrastructure, labor and that incentives to companies are aligned.”

But, beyond their government proposals, each candidate must be aware and familiar with the challenges that nearshoring entails:

Boost infrastructure investment

There are many critical issues remaining to be resolved to attract nearshoring, but the focus will need to be on water and energy policy.

• Water.- Design a national water plan that guarantees the supply to industries and the population.

• Energy.- Develop a sustainable energy policy, that is, public and private investment in electrical infrastructure with a low carbon footprint, in electrical networks (transmission and distribution), and in the expansion of the gas pipeline network, in addition to the development of a natural gas storage policy.

Another critical issue, no less important, is the development of necessary infrastructure in less industrially developed regions, but with the potential to grow. A great success of the current administration is the Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, that connects Pacific and Atlantic oceans at central Mexico. But what specific actions would be promoted to give continuity to this project?

Guarantee the rule of law

The climate of insecurity throughout the country impacts companies. It is an issue that increasingly worries investors.

Will there be a change in the government’s strategy regarding the fight against drug trafficking? The question is valid for all three presidential candidates, not just for the candidate of the ruling party. It is not a minor task, when we have seen that past administrations also erred in their strategies.

Manage bilateral relations with the United States

2025 will be a defining year for the presidents of the United States and Mexico in the consolidation of nearshoring (investments from Asia considered as reshoring are also arriving in southern states of the United States). The relocation of supply chains will intensify, but protectionism will increase, regardless of whether the Democratic or Republican candidate wins.

In addition, sensitive issues on the Mexico – United States bilateral agenda, such as drug trafficking and immigration policy, will serve as a bargaining chip to put pressure on the trade relationship (as already happened with Donald Trump’s “threat” to impose tariffs on Mexican products if Mexico did not solve the immigration issue).

Resolve the USMCA controversies on labor and energy issues

In 2026, the USMCA will be reviewed, which implies that each country will have to prepare the issues that it will put on the table for discussion. Mexico will have a lot to explain about its progress in labor issues (labor reform, salaries, union democracy, etc.) and energy issues (Will Mexico continue with a “nationalist” energy policy? Will green energy be promoted?).

Although the USMCA will be subject to review and not renegotiation, Mexico will face pressure from its trading partners, especially the United States, if Donald Trump is elected president.

Continuing the legacy of president Andrés Manuel López Obrador or…

Anything can happen. As the electoral campaign progresses, the federal government may establish new decrees, such as the railway decree, which gives priority to the transport of passengers over that of goods, or new orders from president Andrés Manuel López Obrador such as asking the Army to be in charge of the maintenance of the roads.

In addition, it must be taken into account that the Mexican president sent to the Congress a series of constitutional reform initiatives that will have to be considered, reviewed or modified, according to the vision of the new president and the formation of the new Legislative Branch:

• In energy matters (return to the Federal Electricity Commission its character as a strategic public company),

• Water for industrial use (respect areas with water scarcity and only grant concessions for domestic use)

• Railway tracks (use the 18 thousand kilometers of tracks for passenger trains, excluding freight trains)

• Eliminate autonomous organizations (such as the Federal Telecommunications Institute and the Federal Economic Competition Commission).

These bills will hardly be approved in the administration of President López Obrador, because he currently does not have the support of the qualified majority in Congress. However, the panorama could change once all federal deputies and senators are renewed in the elections on June 2, and take office as of September 1.

Whoever wins, there are times of political uncertainty for the rest of the year, which could impact the economy and the business climate, especially the mood of investors.